031219 Weekend Recap
Looking at the Big Ten Quarters, MN State Tournament + Top NTDP Prospects
To start, Big Ten Playoffs, where three teams advanced: Minnesota, Penn State and Notre Dame (alongside top-seeded Ohio State). That led off a weekend of good games. I watched most of the Minnesota High School State Tournament (Class AA play) as well as the NTDP, who played Lincoln twice. I included some notes from those games as well as the Big Ten quarterfinal games. For the Big Ten, I did a mix between commenting on the series themselves, and then remarking on the seasons that were for the three teams who are done this year. Here are the semi-final matchups:
March 16 | Minnesota at Notre Dame, 7 PM on BTN
March 17 | Penn State at Ohio State, 3:30 PM on BTN
Big Ten Quarterfinals
Michigan x Minnesota at MN: Minnesota sweeps.
This was ‘the big’ series to watch in my estimation, with Michigan underperforming and Minnesota on a nice curve to enter the post-season. It wasn’t great for Michigan, who needed Hughes to step up big. The newest Vancouver Canuck went -2 on the weekend, and was injured blocking a shot with a minute to go in game one. He wasn’t himself on game two, a night where he needed to be that and more to keep the season alive.
The Wolverines season was one to forget if you aren’t one who likes to follow prospects. I’m covering the Big Ten for a lot of reasons, but one of them is that all of these programs ought to have high expectations. In that regard, it’s relevant to note that this season could have gone horrifically, and didn’t. Here are the keys to this year and future from my perspective.
A. They weren’t good enough defensively, particularly if you include the goaltending. To be clear, they never had adequate goaltending. The team’s combined save percentage was .887, which is unacceptable. There were moments where they had some good goaltending performances, but it simply wasn’t there as an element of this team. That means you have to adapt, plan to score more goals per game, or else play really tight and contain the chances. They didn’t have the personnel to beat teams that way, especially without Norris. This team could have had Bode Wilde on the second pair. It wouldn’t have changed the fact that they allowed too many goals against, and would have been exposed for that in the post-season.
B. The loss of Josh Norris down the stretch was a shot to the knee of a team that was already scraping the way down the rest of a tough Big Ten schedule. The end-of-season sweep by Wisconsin betrayed how quickly things could fall apart for this group, with production out of some of the depth players and secondary scoring becoming more than necessary. I thought bottom-six forwards Dakota Raabe, Garrett Van Wyhe and Nolan Moyle were some of their best players at times. That’s fine in the post-season, but you need your best players to be your best players too. If this team were better and deeper, Quinn Hughes wouldn’t have needed to be as involved offensively, and they probably could have gotten not only more production but a Hobey Baker quality season out of him. Instead they lived-and-died by the defenseman, their leading scorer.
C. The season could have fallen apart, but didn’t. I think it’s always worth noting that the conference is tough, you play six competitive programs four times apiece, and they were competitive. They did lose some key recruits, they did lack the goaltending, they were a little light down the middle and got exposed with Norris’ injury, but they made it all work. They were in games. Joe Cecconi and Quinn Hughes were one of the best pairs in college hockey. The Pastujov brothers pitched in their share of offense, as did Jake Slaker. Will Lockwood did a ton. As noted, the depth started to shine through when they needed them to, and there are some pieces to build around regardless of the departing players. My concern remains the goaltending. If they can’t get more from that position, they’ll have to win in spite of their goaltending, which they could have had they not lost Norris. That’s far from ideal for a top program, though. I think you get to see a team play better when they feel confident that their goaltender will give them a real chance every night. There are plenty of great recruits coming in, but no one who addresses that need in net.
Penn State x Wisconsin at PSU: Penn State wins in three.
Wisconsin took Penn State to three games, winning in overtime in game one. Evan Barratt had an active third period for the Nittany Lions, with two assists and a game misconduct in garbage time to get himself suspended for game two. Liam Folkes and Alex Limoges stepped up big on night two, continuing what was a terrific weekend for Barratt’s season-long linemates. Folkes would decide things in overtime on game three and end the season for a young Badgers group that showed some sparks down the stretch.
Looking at the season for Wisconsin, I’m reminded of my Michigan season-ending comments. Wisconsin didn’t really have the goaltending either, but they also didn’t have a top pairing of the caliber that Quinn Hughes and Joe Cecconi are. Instead, first-year defenseman K’Andre Miller stepped into the league and played if not like a senior, like a top NHL prospect, and helped this team make some noise early in the year. They had another top defender in Wyatt Kalynuk, and a quietly great core of young blue liners in Josh Ess, Tyler Inamoto and Ty Emberson, all of whom saw a ton of time. From a program perspective, it was a building year for new coach Tony Granato.
The team’s core is so young and talented I almost wish there was a draft so they could tank this year, add another legit young piece and make a run next year. They will probably make a run next year regardless. This team had only two upperclassmen score more than fifteen points - the point spread will be much more diverse next season. 2020 draft-eligible Dylan Holloway is expected to spend next winter on campus and should add a young elite scoring threat to a roster that never lacked for those. 2019 draft-eligibles from the National Program; Alex Turcotte, Cole Caufield and Owen Lindmark are all in that group, which I’ll preview more in-depth below. Freshman Dan Lebedeff in net put forward a valiant effort and could emerge in a big way with a better team in front of him. Unlike Michigan, who didn’t get a chance to rail teams with a Hughes/Wilde one-two punch this year, Wisconsin coach Tony Granato should have more weapons than he knows how to deal with. That ought to keep them competitive even if Lebedeff doesn’t become a rock.
Michigan State x Notre Dame at ND: Irish sweep.
Sometimes a series really is what you think it’s going to be. This was the case. It wasn’t the most exciting, but it was a hard-fought series, well won by the Irish. The story of the weekend was pretty clearly the KHL line getting straight-up told “nope” by the Irish defense through two games. The Spartans lost a tough one to open the weekend, getting shutout 1-0, then went down early in game two against an Irish team that are very stingy. While I don’t think the Irish will take the Big Ten tournament, there’s a compelling argument to be made that they will if they keep this up.
Looking at Michigan State’s season, I’ve written a lot about the KHL line, and for good reason. They’re the best line in college hockey. It was a unique group; Taro Hirose (recent DET free agent signee) creating and playing some of his best hockey, Pat Khodorenko, a finisher coming into his own at this level, and Mitch Lewandowski, a talent who did whatever was needed between them. There was more than just that trio to this team, obviously, though if the remaining two stay, that’s terrific for next year.
Freshman Dennis Cesana stepped up on a blue line that I thought was deceptively good: Zach Osburn, Jerad Rosburg, Tommy Miller and the Krieger brothers all held their own in the Big Ten. The goaltending was adequate and both members of their tandem should be back next season. One recruit I’m really interested to see come to campus this fall is Egor Afanasyev, who could add another scoring threat in the vein of Khodorenko.
MN State Tournament
Edina 4 x 3 Eden Prairie
Peter Colby (2G)
I wanted to recap this game, but between writing up the semi-finals and the Big Ten playoffs, I decided to just watch it while keeping tabs on everything else. It was a great title game with underdogs Eden Prairie surprising Edina until the third period, where the Hornets started to really buzz and eventually win in overtime. Late ‘02-birthyear goalie Louden Hogg, originally from Cheyenne (WY), was someone I felt might be a weak spot for Edina and he was anything but that, so credit to him for showing up.
Some articles on that title game: Loren Nelson for the Hockey Hub | Michael Russo for The Athletic
NTDP x Lincoln (USHL)
I watched the NTDP play two games against Lincoln this weekend with plans to write about the draft guys. I’ve watched a lot of the team over the course of the year, but now I’m tracking back to focus on their USHL schedule and firm up my read on certain players. There are a lot of draft guys on this team, realistically I could do ten more updates. This will be far from the last time I write about these players.
Alex Turcotte - Center - Wisconsin
Lots of bright moments. Turcotte is one of the players who is really easy to watch, every shift he is eager to make an impact. A lot of his game is at least at a 4-out-of-5 level the way I see it. Strong on faceoffs, great speed, decisive reads. Not only that, but he puts in an honest effort. One of his better shifts he locked down an open Lincoln skaters’ stick and then beat him up the ice, received the puck, then made a power move to the inside lane. He got the puck on net which resulted in a chance and goal. If not 200, it was a 180-foot play at least.
Spencer Knight - Goaltender - Boston College
I’m not a goalie expert but I’m always interested in the top-tier goaltending prospects. Goalies are just different, like pitchers or quarterbacks. For me, Knight may be the most exciting prospect since Auston Matthews. There are all the obvious things, he’s got good size, athleticism, confidence, ‘looks the part’, but there’s something else that distinguishes him. If I had to put my finger on it, it would be the body of work. Where other elite young goaltenders can seem to come down to earth over time, he keeps growing. He’s looked good for years now and I’m really hoping to see him continue to succeed, hopefully with what will be a resurgence of top level play at Chestnut Hill.
Jack Hughes - Center - Uncommitted
I don’t think Hughes is NHL-ready today, certainly not in the fashion previous super-centers have been - Matthews, McDavid, Eichel, Hischier…
I don’t think he’s a center when he does get to the league, either. If he is, I think he’s going to be a super-exciting, unique star at center. I really notice his hands and reflexes around the net, but don’t see as much of a sharpshooting element that I’ve come to appreciate from other elite middle-men. When he does get his shot off, it isn’t too scary. The passing is what blows you away, for the most part. If Hughes continues to grow and the NHL accentuates speed and skill even more so, it will be a match made in heaven. The thing is, he’s adapted to the game where people try to check him. He’s like a lot of the best playmakers today in that he’s able to do things at a high velocity but also roll off aggressive defending and create. One of the things about his speed is that if you finish a check on him, and he doesn’t get taken aback, he’s going to recover, separate and be well ahead of you within a few strides.
Check out this article by Michael Traikos in the Toronto Sun about how wingers are “driving” the offense in today’s NHL. You’ll get the idea of what type of forward I think Hughes is.
Matt Beniers - Wing - Uncommitted
Joining a storied tradition of players skating for the U18s well before their 17th birthday, Beniers was great. They had him killing penalties early and on a top forward unit, where he looked really sharp. Laid one out very nicely to Patrick Moynihan to one-time it. I really like him on the puck right now, receiving it, managing possession, operating. Not eligible until the summer of 2021.
Jon Beecher - Center - Michigan
Very nice player who I remember hearing about years ago, never let up and has turned himself into a good prospect down the middle. He should help the Wolverines bounce back over the next few years. If he’s their second or third-line center, they’ve got a nice situation. Plus length, compete, size.
Matt Boldy - NTDP - Boston College
He has flashes where he plays the puck through bodies and it’s like… just wait a couple years. His shot in particular, he really seems to get a lot of it and shoots to hit nice areas. Especially like him off the puck looking to rip one timers. He has a very nice upside. Far from the last time I’ll be writing about him in the next few months.
Dom Fensore - NTDP - Boston University
I feel like I could name countless diminutive defenders who really have some sparks with the puck and compete these days. Fensore is another. At 5’6, the question is going to be about picking his spots and being tough to play against defensively, but he’s going to be a good piece at BU.
Michael Gildon - Wing - Ohio State
He’s far from just a big body, though just as a frame to block the goalie and impress on opponents in the hard areas, he’s very appealing. There are elements of his game on the puck that could help him emerge as a pro threat someday. I think he’s the type of player who may be complementary in a good way. He should be able to play wherever in the line-up early, could be really effective on a top line with Carson Meyer or Tanner Laczynski, but also could go with guys like Quinn Preston and Ronnie Hein. The latter would make a line that threatens to score as well as being consistently really hard to play against. I don’t want to call Gildon a glue guy but if he continues to round out his game he could be a versatile big man all the way to the upper echelons of pro hockey.
Nearly everyone on this year’s NTDP team is worth some ink, I’ll be writing about them more as the draft approaches.