Big Ten Playoff Preview
Here are the PairWise Rankings of all the Big Ten teams going into this weekend, followed by my previews of the three series:
Ohio State — (7th)
Notre Dame — (15th)
Penn State — (16th)
Minnesota — (20th)
Michigan — (24th)
Wisconsin — (26th)
Michigan State — (27th)
Key series: Minnesota x Michigan (at MN)
Season Series: 2-2
Top three scorers (in Big Ten play) for Minnesota
Sr. Tyler Sheehy - 10-21-31
Jr. Rem Pitlick - 13-15-28
So. Brannon McManus - 10-9-19
Top three scorers (in Big Ten play) for Michigan
So. Quinn Hughes - 2-24-26
Jr. Will Lockwood - 13-12-25
Jr. Nick Pastujov - 7-9-16
Series preview: The visiting Wolverines slipped and stumbled to end the season. You can’t fault coach Mel Pearson’s staff too much, this is an intense conference and they lost the definition of a core piece in top forward Josh Norris. The effect he had on this team, already reliant on a wild colt in roving defenseman Quinn Hughes (33 pts), can’t be overstated. In Norris’ absence, the freshmen class and junior Will Lockwood have stepped up. Lockwood has been held off the scoring sheet just once since Norris went on the IR in mid-January.
This team is still a solid group without Norris, this is Michigan hockey. They aren’t the only team hurting going into playoffs, either. Unfortunately, past Hughes and arguably his defensive partner Joe Cecconi, Norris was basically the piece the Wolverines couldn’t afford to lose. On top of that big loss, they aren’t getting the goaltending that would put this team into a really competitive place. It should take a combination of Bob Motzko’s Minnesota team underperforming at home (not out of the question) and Quinn Hughes dicing up the big ice sheet with everything he has to get out of this series alive.
In a sense, the best move may be for Hughes to keep it as simple as possible, knowing he may need to eat major minutes for a possible three nights in a row. Playing a simple two-way game, pacing himself and executing, he’d likely be the best player on the ice. It will really be dependent on the Michigan depth to not concede much against a Minnesota team eager to prove themselves.
For Minnesota’s part, they’ve earned the higher seed. They had some big tests down the stretch. They could have folded after a sweep at Penn State and the season would have looked entirely different. Instead they went 5-1, sweeping Ohio State and Arizona State. In two games hosting Notre Dame, one of the tougher draws in the conference, they split one-goal games. Things are looking good for the Gophers, so what better time to slip and fall? No pressure.
Really though, Minnesota are a strong favorite from my view. Their defense, when playing at the top of their game, can step up to the plate. There is a lot of youth, but when the youth plays well, they tend to win. They’re in winning form with all the pieces on the checklist marked off. Earlier in the season Brent Gates, Rem Pitlick and Tyler Sheehy were a force on a line that performed even when the team didn’t as a whole. Now that they’ve got that “one line” they can trust to threaten the net, they’ve started to see offense come from the younger players — not unlike Michigan this year.
Minnesota’s younger players are a different breed though. Freshman Sammy Walker will be one of the most dangerous players in the Big Ten next year if he isn’t already. Fellow freshman Ben Brinkman turned 18 as the season started and some nights is the best defender in a group full of Minnesota high school hockey all-stars. Arizona native Nathan Burke has emerged as a force on a line with the aforementioned Walker and former Grand Rapids skater Blake McLaughlin. Sophomore Scott Reedy and senior Jack Ramsey have been playing some of their better hockey down the stretch and they’ve got two good goaltenders whereas Michigan still have a question mark in net in March.
If I didn’t respect what Michigan are capable of, I’d say that Minnesota have this in two games. This is a distinctly tight conference this year so I think it will go to a third game but end in Minnesota’s favor.
Three keys:
Defensive play. Michigan have the wildcard in Quinn Hughes who creates problems, but they can lean on him too much and the goaltending hasn’t been great.
Depth play. The underclassmen or secondary scorers for either team need to win some of their match-ups and convert. It could be freshman defenseman Nick Blankenburg pushing the play on Minnesota’s bottom-six out of nowhere, or senior Tommy Novak creating a really nice play against whoever is in net for Michigan. The top players for each team will already be doing the most they can to keep it competitive.
Coaching. Quinn Hughes is someone you have to game-plan around, but I’m not sure how. He’s game-breaking for a reason. I suppose just kind of hope to contain him, while keeping honest, two-way players matched-up against him as much as possible. Minnesota’s special teams have looked a bit better, but it’s a new season.
Penn State x Wisconsin
Season Series: 2-2
Top three scorers (in Big Ten play) for Penn State
Jr. Brandon Biro - 10-17-27
So. Evan Barratt - 11-14-25
So. Alex Limoges - 10-14-24
Top three scorers (in Big Ten play) for Wisconsin
So. Linus Weissbach - 5-10-15
So. Sean Dhooghe - 7-8-15
Fr. K’Andre Miller - 3-11-14
Series preview: With two other great series on tap and plenty else to watch, I’m not sure if I’ll catch this series, but I’d like to — especially considering how much these teams have let it fly offensively against each other this year. Both teams have the personnel offensively to make a lot happen. The Nittany Lions ice sophomore sensation Evan Barratt, who has picked up where he left off since coming back from injury, while junior forward Brandon Biro has realized his goalscoring potential in the wake of some critical losses offensively this year — Barratt, but also Finnish stand-out Aarne Talvitie. Barratt’s super-charged line was split up for a time but Penn State saw Biro’s offense spike as well as some other faces contribute. Big man Nikita Pavlychev has been steadily producing, so has Sam Sternschein. Junior forward Nate Sucese, a former prep hockey stand-out at The Gunnery, has been the unsung hero for this team offensively. Sucese’s 11 goals are good for 6th in a conference where nearly every goal matters, and he creates plenty that he doesn’t put in the net himself. Senior Chase Berger has quietly put together a great second half as well.
Defensively, Penn State can be found wanting. That’s why this series could be a lot of fun to watch. They aren’t great at shutting anyone down, they’re much better at matching teams offensively. Wisconsin for their part aren’t the best defensively, and neither team have a goaltender with a save percentage above .900.
The Badgers are reliant on big freshman defenseman K’Andre Miller when he’s in the line-up. He may or may not play this weekend, which could be alright — they’re a team that can win without him as evidenced in a sweep of Michigan this past weekend. They look entirely different with the New York Rangers first-rounder in the line-up, though, and he’s the type who could be a difference-maker in the post-season. This Wisconsin team have the personnel to play both ways in my estimation, but it seems like they are in a re-building year on the whole. The top scorer would be Miller, if he hadn’t been injured. The offense is sparking up a bit at least, led by two super-skilled sophomores in Weissbach and Dhooghe, who will be terrifying next year. It’s far from doom-and-gloom in Madison just because they don’t have one “money line” or a team that can railroad others. There are bright spots. Josh Ess, Roman Ahcan and Jack Gorniak have been producing to close out the season over a three-game span where the Badgers out-scored teams 16 to 10.
The Badgers have some of the brightest recruits in hockey lined up, but that’s no solace this coming weekend. I think both team’s best approach at taking this weekend is to play loose and offensive. Whoever can push the pace on the other team will have a great chance to come out of the series.
Notre Dame x Michigan State
Season Series: 3-0-1 (Notre Dame)
Top three scorers (in Big Ten play) for Notre Dame:
Sr. Dylan Malmquist - 4-14-18
Sr. Bobby Nardella - 3-14-17
Fr. Michael Graham - 10-5-15
Top three scorers (in Big Ten play) for Michigan State:
Jr. Taro Hirose - 10-24-34
Jr. Patrick Khodorenko - 12-17-29
So. Mitchell Lewandowski - 13-12-25
Series preview: Notre Dame host Michigan State in South Bend for what should be a very entertaining, tightly-contested series. Michigan State sport the now-infamous KHL line, who they live-and-die by: Patrick Khodorenko, Mitch Lewandowski and conference leading scorer Taro Hirose. Hate to be cliché, but this series will depend on them if everyone else does their job.
Jeff Jackson’s Irish are big and built to win come playoffs, but at .500 on the season, they aren’t the scariest out. (That’s Ohio State this year.) Despite their size, they are young, and certainly don’t have a “KHL” line of their own. They have a great, unique club, though. Bobby Nardella’s had a great season offensively as a defenseman, leading a defensive group that is deep and multi-faceted. Add in the size throughout the line-up, and the strong goaltending, they’ll serve as a great test for the KHL line if they hope to do any damage past the regular season.