Expectations for first-overall picks
Looking at the top forwards picked in the modern era of the NHL Draft
As the race for first overall gets closer between Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko, I’ve done some research on what the reasonable expectations are for the early production of a first-overall selection in today’s NHL. While every player is different, it was an interesting exercise. For this post I’ve gathered some notes on the early and career productions of the forwards who went first in their respective draft years, going back to the year 2000 and stopping in 2016.
One thing I really wanted to see about was how many super prospects take it to another level statistically after spending a few years in the league. Many of the first overall picks went straight to the NHL after the draft.
2000
First overall: Rick DiPietro
First forward picked was Dany Heatley, who played a year at Wisconsin as the 2nd overall selection, scoring 24-33-57 points in 39 games.
Rookie NHL season: 26-41-67 in 82 GP
Second: 41-48-89 in 77 GP
Third: 13-12-25 in 31 GP
Of note, Heatley came back from the lockout with two 50-goal seasons back-to-back.
2001
First overall: Ilya Kovalchuk
Kovalchuk came directly to the league out of Spartak Moskva.
Rookie season: 29-22-51 in 65 GP
Second: 38-29-67 in 81 GP
Third: 41-46-87 in 81 GP
After the lockout, he scored 52 goals in 05-06, 42 in 06-07, 53 in 07-08 and 43 in 08-09, before his totals came back to earth.
2002
First overall: Rick Nash
Nash came straight to the league from the London Knights.
Rookie NHL season: 17-22-39 in 74 GP
Second: 41-16-57 in 80 GP
Third: 31-23-54 in 54 GP
The third season was after a break from the lockout. Nash would not go on to sustain point-per-game totals, but did post multiple 30-and-40-goal seasons.
2003
First overall: Marc-André Fleury
First forward: Eric Staal
Staal came to the league straight out of the OHL's Peterborough Petes, but after spending one full season with the Hurricanes, he spent the next one in the AHL, playing 77 games for the Lowell Lock Monsters. So I've marked the gap, while also citing his playoff totals.
Rookie NHL season: 11-20-31 in 81 GP
AHL year (77pts in 77GP)
Second NHL season: 45-55-100 in 82 GP, 9-19-28 in 25 playoffs GP (won Cup)
Third NHL season: 30-40-70 in 82 GP
Staal has posted 50+ points every season but one.
2004
First overall: Alex Ovechkin
Ovechkin was picked going into a lockout, and the post-draft year scoring ‘just’ 13 goals for Dynamo Moskva seems to have served his development just great. It probably didn’t hurt that that was his fourth season of pro hockey in Russia. Ovy lit up the NHL, scoring 163 goals in his first three seasons, playing nearly every regular season game possible.
Rookie season: 52-54-106 in 81 GP
Second: 46-46-92 in 82 GP
Third: 65-47-112 in 82 GP
Ovechkin posted numerous 50+ goal seasons and has been a consistent producer in the playoffs as well.
2005
First overall: Sidney Crosby
Crosby stepped right into the league and did what he's been doing ever since. One of the most consistently great NHL players, winning three Stanley Cups, multiple MVP trophies, the list goes on…
Rookie season: 39-63-102 in 81 GP
Second: 36-82-120 in 79 GP
Third: 24-48-72 in 53 GP
Crosby's career speaks for itself, like most of these players. Production-wise, he's rarely posted a season with less than 30 goals and 40 assists.
2006
First overall: Erik Johnson
First forward: Jordan Staal
Staal is another OHLer who went straight to the league, and he went in a first round packed with elite NHLers -- the likes of Toews, Backstrom, Kessel and Giroux.
Rookie season: 29-13-42 in 81 GP
Second: 12-16-28 in 82 GP
Third: 22-27-49 in 82 GP
Jordan Staal's numbers don't necessarily fit the expectations of a first overall pick, but they have been remarkably consistent even with his production as a very young man. Posting 42 points in 81 games as a rookie, he's floated around those totals for his entire career, with some seasons achieving very respectable PPG totals. He won a cup with Pittsburgh in 2009, on a team with two super-centers already in Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. His career production is probably heavily impacted by usage: Staal may have been 3rd on the team in scoring with 49 points that year, but Malkin and Crosby were 1-2 with double his totals: 113 and 103, respectively. This spring, Jordan had a 4-6-10 line, going +7 in 15 playoff games for the Caroline Hurricanes.
2007
First overall: Patrick Kane
Stop me if you've heard this before... an OHLer who went right to the league.
Rookie: 21-51-72 in 82 GP
Second: 25-45-70 in 80 GP
Third: 30-58-88 in 82 GP
Kane has never scored less than 23 goals in a season since his rookie outing, and never less than 32 assists -- which came in a lock-out shortened year. He's scored more than 100 points in the regular season twice, including this season, and has won three cups.
2008
First overall: Steven Stamkos
OHL to the show...
Rookie: 23-23-46 in 79 GP
Second: 51-44-95 in 82 GP
Third: 45-46-91 in 82 GP
Stamkos has notched one 60-goal season, and has never* scored less than 25 goals in a season. He often averages over a point-per-game in the regular season, and has approached those averages in the post-season. His assist totals range widely: some seasons Stamkos scores much more than he assists, whereas in recent years his assist totals have ballooned.
*(I counted 30+ games as a season played for the purposes here)
2009
First overall: John Tavares
OHL to the.... National Hockey League
Rookie: 24-30-54 in 82 GP
Second: 29-38-67 in 79 GP
Third: 31-50-81 in 82 GP
Tavares is a great example of a player who was clearly ready to produce in the league early, but also continued to grow each year of his entry-level contract. By the time he had re-signed, leading into his years as captain of the Islanders, he had become a point-per-game producer. This season with the Leafs was his best season yet, 47-41-88, reaching career highs in goals scored, plus-minus and total points.
2010
First overall: Taylor Hall
Taylor or Tyler? Hall and Tyler Seguin are the two most productive skaters out of this class so far. Hall's stint with the Edmonton Oilers was not the smoothest, though he did consistently put up numbers. By his third year, he found himself playing 26 games in the American league, though he bounced back to the NHL with an 80 point outing, that being his first season with more than 70 NHL games played. Like basically everyone else, Taylor went from the OHL straight to the league.
Rookie: 22-20-42 in 65 GP
Second: 27-26-53 in 61 GP
Third: 16-34-50 in 45 GP
Hall posted 93 points in 2017-18, including 6 in 5 playoff games, and had a point-per-game pace in 33 games with the NJ Devils this season.
2011
First overall: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Nugent-Hopkins came straight to the league off of a 106-point campaign with the Red Deer Rebels.
Rookie: 18-34-52 in 62 GP
Second: 4-20-24 in 40 GP
Third: 19-37-56 in 80 GP
Nugent-Hopkins has hovered at around .7 PPG since breaking out early in his career.
2012
First overall: Nail Yakupov
Yakupov was a super-promising prospect at the time, as all first overall selections are, but failed to reach those promised point totals in the NHL. He now plays for the KHL's SKA St. Petersburg, leading in goals. Nail, also, went straight from the OHL to the league. His rookie season was lockout-shortened, though.
Rookie: 17-14-31 in 48 GP
Second: 11-13-24 in 63 GP
Third: 14-19-33 in 81 GP
2013
First overall: Nathan MacKinnon
MacKinnon also went straight from major junior (Halifax of the Q) to the league after being drafted. MacKinnon's explosive speed and offensive capacities are unique. I think he displayed all the earmarks of a player who can and should make an impact early.
Rookie: 24-39-63 in 82 GP (10 pts in 7 playoff GP)
Second: 14-24-38 in 64 GP
Third: 21-31-52 in 72 GP
2014
First overall: Aaron Ekblad
First forward: Sam Reinhart
Reinhart went right ahead of another super-prospect that landed with the Oilers, Leon Draisatl. I've included his early numbers as well, since they stand out. Reinhart played 9 games in the NHL as a 'rookie', so I've not listed that season.
Rookie: 23-19-42 in 79 GP
Second: 17-30-47 in 79 GP
Third: 25-25-50 in 82 GP
Reinhart took another jump last season, his fourth full campaign, totaling 65 points in 82 games.
And Draisatl's numbers:
Rookie NHL year (split with WHL): 2-7-9 in 37 GP
Second: 19-32-51 in 72 GP
Third: 29-48-77 in 82 GP
Draisatl went on to post 50-55-105 in 82 GP this season.
2015
First overall: Connor McDavid
The marquee star of the NHL will hopefully be Edmonton's savior. At the bare minimum, he is likely to continue annihilating the scoring charts. We can make an exception for McDavid - I’ve listed all four of his seasons to date. Notably, McDavid went just before another top center in Jack Eichel, who is a remarkably consistent producer through four seasons. That said, Eichel is still not in the same galaxy as McDavid when it comes to production, which is a testament to the level of talent the 22-year-old forward has displayed.
Rookie: 16-32-48 in 45 GP
Second: 30-70-100 in 82 GP
Third: 41-67-108 in 82 GP
Fourth: 41-75-116 in 78 GP
McDavid is a glaring stand-out among first overall picks, and has a long time to put together the career of accolades that other first overall picks like Crosby, Kane and Ovechkin have.
2016
First overall: Auston Matthews
If McDavid is a glaring stand-out, what does that make Matthews? Also a glaring stand-out. The contrast between their careers should only get more fascinating statistically as well as in the trophy department. One has the hopes of Edmonton in his hands (and on his back) — the other has Toronto.
Anyway, after playing a draft year in Switzerland, Matthews made his NHL debut with a 40-goal campaign. The last two seasons have been cut down by injuries, but Matthews has put up over a point-per-game in the regular season since his rookie year. He's also been to the playoffs three times (13 pts in 20 GP), which is something few players can say while still on their entry-level deal. Relevant to all of this: Matthews’ current start in the league appears to be fertile ground for another push forward in production, assuming he can stay healthy through an 82-game season and playoffs. It doesn’t seem outrageous to me that Matthews could hit 100+ points repeatedly in his prime, alongside the skilled, young cast maturing around him in Toronto.
Rookie: 40-29-69 in 82 GP
Second: 34-29-63 in 62 GP
Third: 37-36-73 in 68 GP
Thanks for reading.