Is this the year for the Buckeyes to win the Big Ten?

This week's Big Ten column looks at Ohio State, in Pole Position at Midseason

The Buckeyes aren’t technically the sole leader of the Big Ten conference at the break. With sixteen points, they’re tied with the Badgers for first, who have played an extra series so far. Both teams have four in-conference wins, but the Irish, with fifteen points in eight games, actually have one more win. Any system that uses shootouts to determine a winner deserves its validity be questioned, but frankly the Buckeyes and their two SOWs may as well be on top. I’ll write about why that is today. I could see an outside argument for the Irish, but they won a close one Friday against Penn State and then lost 9-1 to them on Saturday, so I’m writing about the Buckeyes today.

Before tied-for-first-in-conference Wisconsin fans contest my favoritism for the Buckeyes (and other Big Ten squads), here’s my take on the Badgers messy season so far. Two wins against a BC team that don’t look that impressive today. A so-so rest of October. Then November: two losses to a struggling NoDak (.375 in NCHC play), split with the Gophers, add three ties — then they lost to tied-for-first OSU by a goal differential of six! I don’t think so. They simply aren’t on the next level yet.

For fun, their December so far: winning a shootout against Penn State and two wins against a Michigan State team that hasn’t put it together yet either — it doesn’t give me a ton of confidence. I don’t want to hate on the Badgers, but let’s check in on this super-talented (and young) team after the break.

No, I think the polls have it pretty well right for now, USCHO’s #6 Notre Dame (despite the 9-1 thumping) and #7 Ohio State are the Big Ten’s best two threats to win it all this year - the Frozen Four and the Big Ten. #9 Penn State, exciting as they may be, are living and dying by a top line that could get shut down, or just slow down. Of course the rest of the conference are competitive, but the nature of the Big Ten is that some would-be big dogs get quieted down. I’ll look at all the conference teams in time, but the aforementioned three are my focuses the next few weeks.

OSU

The Ohio State University’s Men’s Ice Hockey team had a preseason ranking of #3 in the polls, right in between Notre Dame (#2) and Michigan (#4). There hasn’t been much wavering, by mid-November they were ranked just behind 8-1 Penn State at #6, with a 6-3-1 record. Their early schedule is one that looks better with time: two wins against a real solid Arizona State outfit to set the tone (3-2, 3-0), a split with a UMass-Amherst team that also turned out to be “for real” and a fight against a Bowling Green group that gave them some bruises (8-2 L, 2-2T). Anyone who knows their sports tropes knows you want to get those losses out of the way early and “find yourself”.

Well the Buckeyes did, they were challenged with two one-goal results against Notre Dame, earning a split to open B1G play, while a trip to Colgate’s brand new Class of 1965 arena was an opportunity to pad the non-conference results column with two wins. That was followed by a series where they rubbed a young Badgers teams face in the snow, chasing freshman stand-out goaltender Dan Lebedeff from the net on the first night and sending in another three on back-up Jack Berry in a 3-1 W the next night. The last hiccup for tOSU came in the midst of Penn State sophomore forward Evan Barratt’s hot streak, and he didn’t take the first night off for coach Rohlik and crew. 1G1A from the Hobey hopeful and production from depth scorers in an 80-shot outing on night one was followed by a night where they were able to keep Barratt off the sheet, gritting it out in a special teams battle that would be resolved by a late Dakota Joshua marker.

Most recently they headed to Mariucci to play the Gophers where they twice couldn’t find a goal in 4-on-4 overtime, so they played a 3-on-3 quarter-period and the Buckeyes came out with the two points in conference both nights. I wouldn’t say that series concerned me so desperately, NCAA “tie” or not. The Buckeyes seemed to deserve both of those wins, out-playing the Gophers in my opinion, in a general sense both nights. As coach Steve Rohlik said, “Obviously disappointing for us to give up the goal in the last minute of the game to tie it, but you know, certainly with the players and on the ice, it feels like a win. Any time – I don’t care if it goes five-on-five or three-on-three or whatnot – we score, they didn’t, it feels like a win.” (USCHO)

I think that argument is much more compelling than if the win were to come in a shootout, which just feels anti-climactic for me, even if three-on-three can be hilarious.

OSU have held teams to 2 goals a game on the year, allowing two or less in their last eleven, and they outshot the Gophers 45-16 last Saturday, 19-2 counting just the third and into overtime. Talk about a team that is hungry to win on night two playing that ocean of a 3M Arena sheet. So here we are with the Buckeyes now “first” in the Big Ten, likely the top team regardless of Big Ten standings if they keep it up — assuming Penn State waver, and Notre Dame don’t rebound next month. Don’t think I’ve ruled out the possibility of preseason #4 Michigan emerging in a big way either.

In an attempt to break down my take on the Buckeyes I’ve highlighted three pros and three cons heading into the second half. Since this is the start of my coverage for the Big Ten, highlighting a top team, this was a little more exhaustive of an effort than some of my pieces will be in the future.

Three Pros for the Buckeyes

A. Old (experienced) and talented: the only freshman anywhere near the top scoring is swift-skating Gustaf Westlund, who gets real minutes and has ten assists on the year. The rest are all great upperclassmen: there isn’t one sophomore with more than three points. As far as the freshman Westlund is concerned, third in points among Big Ten freshman but still throwing up goose-eggs on the scoring column — team powerplay goals-leader Mason Jobst doesn’t let on many concerns: “‘Goose’ is extremely skilled,” Jobst said. “I would go as far as to say he’s the best stickhandling, shiftiest guy on the team. He has a lot of assists, he’s getting the chances, so I know he’s going to find the back of the net soon, and it makes him fun to play with.” (quote from article in The Athletic) .

B. Secondary scoring: They may not be getting much from the underclassmen on the scoring sheet, and they may not have anyone leading the nation, but all of their top nine can play with any line in college hockey. They remind me of Minnesota State in that sense, they may not necessarily all be future NHLers, but they’ve all been around the block, add something important and can play the game at a high level.

C. They’re getting the goaltending: Sophomore Tommy Nappier is a bright spot in net (5-1-2, .951%, 1.43 GAA), while senior transfer Sean Romeo (4-3-1, .912%, 2.35 GAA) provides a second option who is more than capable of giving his team a chance to win.

Did I mention they have a top-10 defense in the NCAA by the numbers, and five shutouts so far? (Or at least they did when I wrote this a few days ago)

Below - NCAA play of the week from Sean Romeo, a Cary, NC native and Carolina Jr. Hurricane who spent two years at Maine before transferring in. In overtime against Gophers-leading scorer Rem Pitlick.

Three Cons for the Buckeyes

A. In a year where defensemen are finding more success taking chances: Ohio State really don’t have a guy on defense who can take over the game. That doesn’t mean they have a bad defense. In fact, it’s the opposite. What they have are a lot of players who can skate and move the puck, which is emblematic of the role of a defenseman in the game today in my view: if you can’t find a few guys who will be super-dynamic and run your offense, or even just rush it up reliably, then you better hope your entire defensive group can move the puck, defend and skate at an adequate level. I think Ohio State are more than straight in that regard, and this forward group and goaltending tandem compensate for a less involved defense. So is this even a con, or just a stylistic difference? If the Buckeyes win it all they’ll give credence to the thought that an Adam Fox, Quinn Hughes or Scott Perunovich-style offense run through a defenseman may not really be the main way to success — even if it is the trend.

B. The schedule does get harder: as is wont to happen in the Big Ten schedule where every team plays each other four times. That’s something I really enjoy about the Big Ten. Every night is going to be an absolute battle, and not just because everyone cares, but because everyone is seriously good at the game and wants to win. The Buckeyes had a hard-fought series against Notre Dame, who they won’t fight again until February 1st. That’ll be in the midst of a tough stretch.

The schedule (from College Hockey News pictured below), includes two games against Mercyhurst to end the calendar year, before a series at Michigan State. I don’t love the matchup against MSU for OSU, who they have to play four times still. The Spartans should only get hungrier, and Khodorenko’s scoring ability poses problems for a team used to managing the game defensively. I think that could be another competitive series if they can’t handle the “KHL” line.

Michigan follows that. The Wolverines will have only played one Big Ten matchup since December 9th: an outdoor game at Notre Dame stadium against the Irish.

Michigan: a team who are literally better than their 2-4-4 conference record, and they also match-up convincingly against the Buckeyes. Ohio State are more of a “straight hockey team”, they out-work you, beat you to pucks, make strong plays on the puck — than the new-look Wolverines are, and I think that explains some of the early struggles for them. Michigan are younger and a different team. They could come on really strong, led by stand-out sophomore defenseman Quinn Hughes (20 pts), Josh Norris (19 pts) and Will Lockwood (15 pts) offensively. With those three on the ice, any of the other top players for the Wolverines combines for a terrifying five-man unit. Joe Cecconi and Jake Slaker are stand-outs but this is Michigan we’re talking about, they have plenty of talent in their depth as well. The point is Ohio State will likely have come out of their two Michigan series bloodied and battle-worn ready to travel to Happy Valley a week later. The Nittany Lions will demand a whole different game from a team that has weathered offensive hailstorms in the past and come out with mixed results. This is all going to be capped off by that looming home series against Notre Dame. We won’t need to see March or even beyond February 2nd to know if the Buckeyes are legit contenders.

C. Special Teams. Coach Steve Rohlik highlighted this (as well as the tough schedule and the parity in the seven-team conference - a big part of why I’ve chosen to write about it) in his post-first half press conference (link here). This is one of those negatives that could actually be seen as a positive. There is a lot of room for improvement for a team that is already quite well-along so far. They kind of remind me of a top prospect in his pre-draft year, who has to remember that just because he is a big name for the draft doesn’t mean he can sleep on his laurels. It really means that even more will be expected of him.

Well, so the same for Ohio State. They’ve shown they are a hell of a team, deep, experienced and able to win consistently. They have what it takes to make it their conference this year, in a stacked year. The question for me is can they kick it up into another gear or will they struggle maintaining their current level of play? I’d bet on the first, barring catastrophic injuries. I don’t think the powerplay (16%) will ever be unstoppable, but they have all the resources to get the top unit firing more often. One for eleven against Minnesota, two for ten opportunities against Penn State in their last pair of series — they don’t need the world: they only have to convert on one or at most two more powerplays per series and they’d really notice it in the results column.

Mason Jobst (5PPG) is a bright part of the special teams situation. In addition to Gustaf Westlund, it seems like Laczynski, Carson Meyer and Dakota Joshua are due more than their respective PPG totals (1, 2 and 1), and at some point that should break open. In a sense, going back to that prospect comparison, this team is like a player who has to “come into” his frame and when he does, the scoring will come as well. The Buckeyes are pretty close to making that happen. However, any unit that doesn’t have Jobst may have trouble functioning, particularly without a defenseman who can reliably create time and space as most teams have. Gordi Myer, Wyatt Ege, Matt Miller et al, seem serviceable on the puck, but simply don’t seem to have that “it” factor necessary to dance on a Big Ten blue line from what I’ve seen.

On the other side, a team’s biggest penalty killer is usually the goalie, and I think Ohio State will only continue to see performance from their tandem in that area.

That concludes my look at Ohio State at the midseason, thanks for reading.