Draft Review
This is a somewhat fragmented look at the draft with comments on certain picks one-by-one. It is pretty exhaustive, though, coming in at nearly 5,000 words. If you just want a run-down of the Americans taken in the first round, check out my recap from draft weekend. You can also see my rankings and how they played out here.
My notes are pretty well focused on the Americans — often times I comment on a player from another region only to contrast where they went compared to the top Americans. This post focuses on the first round with some comments on the second as well. Click here for my notes on the 3rd through 7th round.
1st Round
F Jack Hughes - 1st overall, NJ Devils
“Talent hits a target no one else can hit. Genius hits a target no one else can see.” (Schopenhauer)
The pick was set in stone this time last year, Hughes has been the ‘wire-to-wire’ pick for nearly all draft prognosticators, and it seems fate itself shined on the pick, as Devils GM Ray Shero was the agent for Jim Hughes (Jack’s father) back in his pre-GM days.
For my part, I think the jury is still out on Hughes and this NTDP team as a whole — the top prospect from this year’s group could be anyone from, yes, Hughes, but also Cole Caufield, Spencer Knight, John Beecher, the list goes on. That’s the nature of the draft when they select these kids at 17-18 years old. That said, the talent level you get with Hughes is obscene. I’d like to see him nurture that one-in-a-million skating ability, take his time and play college or pro in Europe, even the OHL, so he could work on some refinement this year: goalscoring, face-offs and generally just sharpen his game up, ideally against men. Then he’d come in ready to do some serious damage on the first year of his entry-level deal. That path seems to be decidedly off-the-table, though.
It isn’t a knock on Hughes — the NTDP’s all-time leading scorer by nearly 40 points — that I think he could take a year. Many first round picks don’t exactly dominate the league early. A path like Auston Matthews took, doing a year in Switzerland, could be ideal. Matthews, a ‘late’ birth-year, had a different situation though, and a different profile as a prospect. Matthews did his two years with the NTDP before having to figure out where to spend his draft year. The team picking first usually don’t have the luxury of being patient, or at least, that is how it gets framed. I don’t think that this season, embarrassing opponents alongside an All-Star NTDP roster was the ideal developmental path to jump straight into the show — none of the other NTDP players will be attempting that steep of a jump — but we’ll see. The league has never seen a player quite like Jack Hughes before, that is certain.
As far as the scouting report, the calling cards are his tremendous skating and playmaking ability. He isn’t a burner in that ‘wow!’ explosive sense, but Hughes has great footwork, is deceptively quick and incredibly good at getting around the zone, with nuanced movements and an agile nature. The ability to reap chaos with his skating and then seize on an opportunity is there. Hughes can execute high-level passing plays and make defenders look stupid trying to tag him up.
That game-breaking offensive upside is what can sell me on Hughes over Kakko — picture Hughes on the powerplay, or in 3-on-3 overtime — but I think the debate between who is better will only continue to rage, as the Finn looks to be better today and will be playing across the Hudson for the Rangers. Hughes seems more like the ribbon you tie on top of an already-good team, the finishing piece — not necessarily the center-piece. It would be nice if the question of who is better between the top two this year heats up only because both are so good, not because one underwhelms early on. On the other hand, the two could end up pushing each other to new heights for many years to come. Hughes on the wing is also very appealing — the Devils could load up a triple-H first line (Hall-Hischier-Hughes) for years and just go to town.
NHL.com’s Mike Morreale: Hughes, likely No. 1 pick in 2019 NHL Draft, gets big assist from family
F Kaapo Kakko - 2nd overall, NY Rangers
“The right man is the one who seizes the moment.” (Goethe)
Love the big Finn. Who doesn’t? I kept tabs on him all year, like most fans of the game’s top prospects did, and I think I would have taken Kakko first, though it is easy to say that with no horse in the game. If Ray Shero goes ‘off the board’ to pick Kakko, and Hughes reaches his potential, he doesn’t look too smart. I get it. Especially as Hughes would likely be playing for their rivals. That said, Kakko had the better draft year, 3-for-3 in international tournaments and he was offensively outstanding wherever he played — including pro hockey — what more could he have done? Play in the KHL?
When it comes to projecting for pro hockey, I’m a sucker for size, skating and proven offensive upside: check-check-check. In spades! I also think he could be the better center of the Hughes-Kakko dyad, with his combination of strength on the puck, size and scoring ability. Hughes, ironically, might project to be the better wing, in a Mitch Marner-esque mold. Wherever he lines up, Kakko seems like the one who can help the Rangers most, and soon. He’s the type of piece that will help them not just make the playoffs, but do some damage when they get there.
Sporting News’ Sammi Silber: As the Rangers seek redemption, New York turns to Kaapo Kakko
F Kirby Dach - 3rd overall, Chicago Blackhawks
The Saskatoon Blades center broke out for 73 points in his second full campaign in the Western league. Dach is a Fort Saskatchewan minor hockey product listed at 6’4. I think it is interesting that they picked him over the other names I heard floated here: Bowen Byram, Alex Turcotte and even Trevor Zegras, who went 6 picks later. It seems clear that size was a distinguishing factor, as the two American centers who were ostensibly in the mix only really lack for that. This pick seems to be a swing at a big-time piece down the middle.
D Bowen Byram - 4th overall, Colorado Avalanche
This addition should make the Avalanche pretty terrifying in a few years. After drop-shipping UMass stand-out defenseman Cale Makar into their lineup for the playoffs, they close out the spring by rebooting the pipeline, securing another electric producer on the point. I wonder who the Avalanche would have selected had Byram gone to the Hawks a pick earlier.
F Alex Turcotte - 5th overall, Los Angeles Kings
“Physical dominance can make you great. Mental dominance is what ultimately makes you unstoppable.” (Tim Grover)
I got pretty tired of watching the NTDP this season because I was trying to get a read for basically every draft-eligible on the roster. For Turcotte’s part, he made the task easy. He is a pleasure to watch, he competes, attacks the net, makes purposeful plays, and is generally a strong talent at center who plays the game the right way. He’s a dialed-in killer on the ice, legitimately tough to play against and disarmingly refined as a scorer especially at his age. He only lacks for prototypical pro size, and his skating doesn’t always blow me away, but it more than gets the job done. As I wrote in my first round write-up, “[Turcotte] is the type of 18-year-old freshman who could motor Wisconsin into a big-time season this winter, which says it all really.” One scout compared his game to Bo Horvat, which I think is apt.
NTDP coach John Wroblewski told NHL.com: “Jack Hughes is our most electrifying player, but Alex is right there as our most valuable player because his game just transcends so much in so many different areas.” He went on to compare Turcotte to a mix of Sidney Crosby and Brad Marchand.
Chicago Tribune’s Jimmy Greenfield: 'He was a rabid wolf': Chicago-area draft prospect Alex Turcotte is ready to get unleashed on the NHL
D Moritz Seider - 6th overall, Detroit Red Wings
I’ll quote my first-round write-up: “…I wasn't that surprised to see German defenseman Moritz Seider (Adler Mannheim) move up to where Detroit took him at six. The draft is all about trying to find value and he is a guy who shot up this year. A 6'4 right shot defenseman who can skate, playing pro in Europe. Sign me up. It’s hard to play defense at a pro level as a draft-eligible, whatever country. This could be a skater who eats major minutes for a decade-plus, and relatively soon.”
Loved this clip of Seider carrying the puck up under pressure. That’s 4th-round pick Ethan Phillips, a soon-to-be BU freshman, with the aggressive forecheck. You can see more of Seider and the rest of the Red Wings prospects playing a full scrimmage on YouTube — click here.
F Dylan Cozens - 7th overall, Buffalo Sabres
Cozens was one of the towering centers (alongside Dach) who contrasted with the smaller group of talents down the middle from the NTDP this season. The Yukon native went pretty high in the end, and he could be a steal for the Sabres at 7.
Sportsnet’s Luke Fox: Yukon’s Dylan Cozens set to make history: ‘I knew I had to get away’
D Philip Broberg - 8th overall, Edmonton Oilers
Oilers picked up a prospect on the blue line out of Sweden. There were a ton of legit options available at the 8 slot, and the Oilers can’t afford to mess up any picks this high. This pick could get a lot of scrutiny over the next few years.
F Trevor Zegras - 9th overall, Anaheim Ducks
I certainly didn’t think Zegras would make it to the double-digits and he nearly did. In the end Anaheim couldn’t pass up this elite playmaker and it could prove to be a very nice pick. He displayed lethal finishing and creativity this season. Wherever he lines up in the NHL, center or wing, he’s going to bring a dangerous offensive toolbox with him. The BU recruit should provide an instant boost to the Terriers offense.
LA Times’ Curtis Zupke: Kings’ Alex Turcotte and Ducks’ Trevor Zegras are ready to soak in sun and the new rivalry
F Vasili Podkolzin - 10th overall, Vancouver Canucks
Podkolzin, a Russian who seems likely to play at home for a while longer, was listed as one of the potential top-three picks early on in the season. His star wavered a little bit as the year wore on. I liked what I saw when I caught him during the World Jr. A Challenge last December. Here’s what I wrote: “01 F Vasily Podkolzin (SKA-St. Petersburg) was a stand-out for me through the first few games. In one viewing he had two goals and was noticeable basically every time he hit the ice. He’s just a presence. Gets involved, really opportunistic offensively, has all the tools to punish you and he’s tough to play against. I like his draft prospects quite a bit.”
D Victor Soderstrom - 11th overall, Arizona Coyotes
Not much to say for this one. Like Broberg, I hardly watched him down the line this season, but this comment by GM John Chayka is one to file away for posterity.
F Matt Boldy - 12th overall, Minnesota Wild
I thought it was interesting that U18 NTDP coach John Wroblewski was quoted in The Athletic saying Boldy had first overall potential. I don’t know that I would go that far, but he is a serious player with real potential, who is only coming into his frame now. There were some games where I could see him as a top-5 talent, for sure. If he had been more dominant this year, with more speed and aggression in his game, I could see where Wroblewski was going with that. What Boldy brings in my estimation is a unique offensive skillset, with incisive moves and an excellent feel for the offensive zone. He can bury it with the best of them. He moves well from a body control standpoint and just flat-out passes the eye test for me.
The Athletic’s Michael Russo ($): ‘Minnesota got a steal’: Wild make Matt Boldy a centerpiece of their future
G Spencer Knight - 13th overall, Florida Panthers
I was surprised to an extent that Trevor Zegras went ‘as low as 9th overall’, but I can understand it. What really baffled me, though, even in the era where goaltenders hardly get taken in the first, was the fact that teams were letting Knight go by. He could be the most valuable prospect in the class. The rest of the players really have to hit the top of their ceiling to match what Knight seems likely to become. Take Minnesota, for example, Matt Boldy is a nice pick but Knight is a potential franchise goaltender, whereas Boldy seems less likely to be a franchise-quality winger. Boldy adds a plethora of appealing offensive traits — but so do most top six forwards. Knight’s selection is one that I think is going to be fascinating to look back on in time. He’s headed to Boston College this fall.
D Cam York - 14th overall, Philadelphia Flyers
My summary from the first-round recap of this Michigan-bound defenseman: “I wasn’t sure where in the first round York would go, he was my favorite defenseman of the draft-eligibles I watched, and I think he’s really tailor-made for the new NHL, as he checks all the boxes and offensively can shoot, set things up or salvage nothing-plays. Michigan lose Quinn Hughes but they add a player in York who makes sparks fly, if he can learn to ride the line and make those heady defensive reads that win games, I think he could be a top-pairing defender for the Flyers in three-to-five years.”
F Cole Caufield - 15th overall, Montreal Canadiens
“The person born with a talent they are meant to use will find their greatest happiness in using it.” (Goethe)
The smiling sniper, ‘goal’ Caufield — whatever you want to call him: he’s going to put the puck in the net. Montreal got him at 15, which could be an incredible slam-dunk of a pick. He’s got such a pure scoring instinct and it isn’t a selfish one — it is just an intense desire to get the puck in the net with the corresponding confidence to take any shot that seems like it could cross the line. I think that Caufield will be glad to go to an organization with such a passionate fanbase who will be expecting a lot from him. He seems like the type to embrace that challenge and will step up to it this year for the Badgers. Caufield doesn’t have to focus on proving the fourteen teams who passed on him wrong — he just has to prove the Habs right.
More on Caufield… per uwbadgers.com, the selection of Caufield (and Turcotte) in the first round “gave Wisconsin its third all-time multi pick first round along with 2016, when Luke Kunin and Trent Frederic were picked, and 2007, when Turris, Ryan McDonagh and Brendan Smith all went in the first round.”
Also of note, “Caufield marks the 13th Badger taken by Montreal in school history, one behind the 14 the Chicago Blackhawks have taken, the most of any NHL team.”
F Alex Newhook - 16th overall, Colorado Avalanche
Following up on a high-end offensive defenseman, the Avalanche add speed down the middle in Newhook — and not just his skating, but processing speed, too. The Newfoundland native could be a critical piece for the Eagles as a freshman this year.
Jumping fourteen picks to the next run on Americans, which book-ended the 1st/2nd round:
F John Beecher - 30th overall, Boston Bruin
This was probably my favorite pick in the draft, for a variety of reasons. I think the Bruins got him right where he was properly valued — someone else would have picked him very soon. Value-wise, he was one of the ‘not-top-prospects’ on this NTDP team for most of the year and still went 30th overall, which tells you something. I also love it from an organizational perspective. The Bruins made it back to the finals this year and this is a player who could help push them over the edge come playoffs: Beecher has size, athleticism, a good power game and offensive talent to boot.
Here’s what I wrote on draft weekend: “In some respects, I think his upside is similar yet higher compared with Trent Frederic, a former Wisconsin forward from the NTDP that the Bruins chose at 29th overall in 2016. Although come playoffs, they both add an all-around package that is very appealing. Beecher has speed, size and an under-rated mix of power and skill that could make 30th overall look like a steal. Of course, he has to realize all of that.”
D Ryan Johnson - 31st overall, Buffalo Sabres
My note on Johnson from draft weekend: “Buffalo got a real solid 6’0 defender who keeps things moving and plays with poise. He won a Clark Cup title with Sioux Falls in the USHL and will look to make a big jump in the Big Ten with the Gophers this winter.”
2nd Round
Starting with the 2nd I’m going to try and keep it brief, but there are still a lot of great talents, especially in the top 40-50, so that’s not easy. Rounds 3-7 will be in a follow-up post.
F Shane Pinto - 32nd overall, Ottawa Senators
The Long Island native grew on me in a big way — by the end of the year Pinto was one of my favorite prospects out of the USHL. He seemed to be more unheralded than the other USHL prospects this year, for whatever reason, but come draft day he was the second non-NTDPer to get picked from the USHL, only one pick after Ryan Johnson closed out the first. He had a very consistent year from a production standpoint across two rosters, finished the season out with a strong playoff. He’s a strong all-around talent who steps up when the moment asks for it. His past coaches also raved about his work ethic and rink rat-nature.
I had him ranked 8th among forwards I evaluated for the draft, and while I didn’t think he would go right at the top of the 2nd — thought he was a little more under-the-radar than that — I can definitely see why the Senators took him there. He had a super rookie season in the ‘U-show’ coming out of U18 hockey, his stock is rising at the right time, and he didn’t play competitive hockey until he was 15 — see below. He’s headed to a North Dakota team that will put him to use right away.
Grand Forks Herald’s Brad Schlossman: Shane Pinto may be 'the guy' to watch in UND's rookie class
Sporting New’s Q&A by Murray Pam: Senators' prospect Shane Pinto on being drafted, his late start to competitive hockey and the USHL
I actually started playing hockey when I was eight. I didn't start playing competitively until I was 15. I played around, but I was never serious about it. At 15, I really started playing. That's when I fell in love with it (the sport). These past three years have been a bit of a whirlwind, but I'm just taking it in stride and kind of enjoying it… I'm a huge golfer. I love to golf. That's all I pretty much do. I work out, skate, and usually try to golf. I used to play baseball and football growing up. I'm a pretty multi-sport athlete, but hockey is my favourite.
F Arthur Kaliyev - 33rd overall, Los Angeles Kings
Kaliyev scored 51-51-102 in 67 OHL games after 31-17-48 in 68 as a rookie last year. I’ve only watched highlights of this Tashkent, Uzbekistan-born sniper (with American citizenship) — but how often do teams get a 50-goal scorer from the OHL outside the first round?
F Bobby Brink - 34th overall, Philadelphia Flyers
This is a fun pick and will be one to reflect on in a few years. Brink dropped a bit from where some draft prognosticators were projecting him to go in the first round, but he still went at the top of the second. This seems like nice value, Brink is a highly-engaged, resourceful playmaker who showed a lot this season for Sioux City. I think he is a slam-dunk in college (Denver-bound), and if the 5’8 Minnetonka (MN) product continues to round out his game then in a few years he could add a lot to the Flyers line-up. Brink scored 35 goals in 43 games as a rookie. The USHL is not a league where players score at-will, but Brink basically did. He also had a pair of points to beat Duluth East and secure a state title with Minnetonka — the first in Skippers history — to close out ‘17-18 before heading to junior.
Rest of the 2nd round
D Jackson LaCombe - 39th overall, Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks secure a raw talent for the blue line out of Shattuck-St. Mary’s prep team. LaCombe has good skating tools and the same goes for his offensive skillset. I like his general athleticism and overall upside, but he’s still far away from what he can be. He has only played defense for like two seasons, and they were at the U18 level. He’ll be thrown to the wolves this fall in the Big Ten — he’s going to the University of Minnesota.
F Vladislav Firstov - 42nd overall, Minnesota Wild
Russian skater out of Lokomotiv-Yaroslavl, Firstov was playing in Russia’s “B” junior league (imagine the rough equivalent would be the NAHL) as well as for Lokomotiv’s U17s last season. He moved to Waterloo, Iowa this year and emerged as a point-per-game producer for the USHL’s Black Hawks. They had a good team this season — finished 2nd in the Western conference — and Firstov was one of their many threats. Come playoffs, Waterloo were knocked out in the first round by eventual champions Sioux Falls, and like many of the league’s top scorers when it came time to face “the Herd”, Firstov was pretty quiet — just two points in four games. Those two points came in a 6-0 blowout. Firstov displayed offensive upside this year, so I think he’s a fine pick, though he may have been available a bit later on.
D Alex Vlasic - 43rd overall, Chicago Blackhawks
I think the Blackhawks took a swing at major upside in Vlasic, which makes a trend after taking Kirby Dach at the 3 spot. Vlasic’s absolutely an unfinished product (who isn’t at 18?) but there is a lot to work with at 6’6, he’s got great mobility for his size and some potential offensive upside. He’s the type of player who, if he puts it all together, could be a top-pairing guy. There is obviously some risk, though, which is inherent to the NHL draft as players are taken at a young age and most picks never get to the league. Headed to Boston University.
F Egor Afanasyev - 45th overall, Nashville Predators
Another Russian who spent time in the USHL, Afanasyev was a consideration for the late first round at some point but went decidedly outside of it. He’s an intriguing prospect, exploding for 62 points after just 14 last year, though when the points start to come in the USHL, they can often really come. He isn’t your typical prospect, he’s very well-built at 6’3, 200, so he was kind of a man amongst boys, though he wasn’t a superstar. He made a lot of plays and has good scoring tools, but I think he may be close to his ceiling. Afanasyev was committed to Michigan State until this spring when he signed with Windsor of the Ontario league. I would have liked to see him push himself in college — Michigan State would have probably liked that too — but I could see why he wants to take his game to the CHL instead.
D Jayden Struble - 46th overall, Montreal Canadiens
Struble, a defenseman, had 70 points over his last two seasons in prep hockey where he, like Afanasyev, was also a man amongst boys, though at 6’0, lacks the same verticality. An imposing force who wants to make plays, Struble was an NHL combine stand-out, ranking 1st in mean power output and achieving high ratings in many other categories. He’ll refine his game in junior hockey with Victoria of the BCHL before heading to Northeastern.
D Drew Helleson - 47th overall, Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche had 3 selections in the top 50 picks, so they had three shots at some serious talent. In Byram they secured a playmaker at the point, in Newhook they add speed and playmaking to the forward group, and Helleson, a defenseman from Minnesota, adds a bit of everything to the mix. He seems like a strong pick, a defenseman who can do it all and at a good level. Chestnut Hill-bound, like Newhook.
F Samuel Fagemo - 50th overall, Los Angeles Kings
Like the Avalanche, the Kings had 3 selections in the top 50. They got Alex Turcotte at 5, prolific goalscorer Arthur Kaliyev from the OHL early in the 2nd and then Fagemo here at 50. A re-entry prospect who posted 35 points playing pro hockey in Sweden with Frölunda, it seems like a hell of a draft with an aim at re-stocking the Kings forward core.
F Robert Mastrosimone - 54th overall, Detroit Red Wings
Detroit had four picks in the first two rounds, and they mostly went for Europeans other than the BU-bound Mastrosimone, who recently broke his ankle blocking a shot at their training camp. He was extremely productive this year and helped bring the Steel to the USHL finals with 15 points in 11 games. When he got injured in game three of the finals, that was basically the nail in the coffin for the Steel’s post-season. The Long Island native (who spent time at Shattuck-St. Mary’s in Minnesota) has a good skill level and a tenacious nose for the net. I think he’s going to find a place for himself in the NHL thanks to his skill and his work ethic, but if he can transform into an elite-level dual threat playmaker in college, the Wings got an absolute steal at 54.